In April, North Korea will hold a national celebration... ...To mark the birthday of the country's founding ""eternal president"" Kim Il-sung But 2018 will also mark another milestone North Korea will have nuclear missiles that can reach American soil We'll see an alarming game of nuclear brinkmanship... ...Between two of the world's most hot-headed leaders... ...Supreme Leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-un...
...And President Donald Trump We need to be ready for anything that could happen over the next year... ...And recognise that this is a very dangerous time As the crisis comes to a head, will 2018 bring cold war or nuclear disaster? Kim Jong-un is the man with a merciless character The world should pay attention Communist North Korea is a secretive state of 25 million people Increasingly, North Koreans are fleeing the tyrannical regime Thae Yong-ho is one of the highest-ranking officials to defect to the West He has unique insight into the inner workings of Mr Kim's government... ...And its nuclear ambition In 2018 North Korea's Kim Jong-un will test fire... ...His Inter Continental Ballistic Missile, ICBM, and its nuclear test Kim Jong-un is really desperate to finish his goal...
...Of acquiring the ability to attack America from North Korean territory The country is already believed to have the means to deliver nuclear warheads... ...At short and medium range In 2017 with the world watching, Mr Kim successfully tested his long-range missile In 2018 he will perfect and demonstrate the ability to fit a nuclear weapon on a missile... ...And fly it all the way to the American mainland San Francisco and Los Angeles will be in its reach Kim Jong-un thinks that the ICBM and nuclear weapons... ...Will be vital for his long-term survival The road ahead will be defined by the pugnacious personalities of Mr Kim and Mr Trump North Korea has long been known for hurling insults at world leaders Mr Kim has described Mr Trump as ""a mentally deranged US dotard"" The President has surprised many...
...By responding to the taunts with equally provocative language Played out in public, the war of words is unprecedented We will strike a merciless blow at the heart of the US. They will be met with fire and fury The so-called ""rocket man"" is often ridiculed in the West... ...But he's proven himself to be calculating and callous If he thinks something really threatens his survival, he's the sort of man to do anything He even killed his uncle and his half-brother It's very important that as rhetoric heats up we not allow that to tumble into a situation... ...That would create an opportunity for miscalculation Despite the bluster and posturing...
...There is nothing to suggest either leader wants to go to war In 2018, Donald Trump must choose between military action and diplomacy China is key to Mr Trump's diplomatic route As supplier of virtually all North Korea's oil, China could curb Mr Kim's behaviour But so far China has been reluctant to reluctant to intervene... ...Because it wants to avoid the collapse of the regime... ...Which could result in a united Korea, with American troops on China's border There is a chance, however remote, that in the year ahead, America could order... ...Pre-emptive surgical strikes against North Korea's nuclear missile facilities If we light that keg we can't assume we'll be able to dampen the fire that ensues quickly or easily The impact of an American military intervention would have devastating consequences North Korea has vast conventional artillery at the ready North Korean military officers are all trained to press their buttons if there is any attack...
...Even a very limited attack by America North Korea would retaliate by firing missiles already positioned to hit Seoul... ...South Korea's capital The mega city of 10 million people is only 56 kilometres from the North's border If North Korea chooses to attack Seoul, an ally and partner of the United States... ...The response would be devastating and overwhelming America has 28,000 troops stationed in South Korea President Trump is capable of deploying cruise missiles, submarines and carriers within hours Kim Jong-un would reach for his stockpile of chemical... ...Biological and eventually nuclear weapons The death toll would rise into the millions...
...Until American and South Korean forces eventually overwhelm the North Korean military But war in 2018 is unlikely The North Korean leader may be pushing the limits of inflammatory behaviour... ...But there is no evidence that he is irrational Kim Jong-un knows that if he uses nuclear weapons against South Korea or America... ...Then he would be the immediate subject of total destruction I do not think that he may initiate that kind of attack The appropriate response from America should not be military bravado... ...But old-fashioned cold war deterrence and containment Downgrade diplomatic relations with the regime We need to make very clear that there is no way that Kim Jong-un will ever gain...
...From the use of his nuclear and missile capabilities I think 2018, America should continue its maximum pressure policy It can make a very negative environment for Kim Jong-un to continue his process In the year ahead... ...America and China should increase pressure on North Korea with tougher sanctions In 2018, the world can avoid catastrophe.
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